2026 El Nino on track to become strongest on record, climate models show

Multiple climate models are projecting that the El Nino event now underway will become the strongest on record by the time it peaks later this year. A consensus forecast points to temperatures in the Nino-3.4 region, a key benchmark for measuring El Nino strength, reaching roughly 4.0 degrees Celsius above average around November 2026. That would surpass the previous record of 3.08 degrees Celsius above average, set in November 2015 during what was then considered one of the strongest El Nino events ever recorded. Some individual model runs project the peak could reach as high as 4.1 to 4.6 degrees Celsius.

Climate scientists have described the projected margin over the prior record, of roughly one degree Celsius, as unusually large, noting it exceeds the entire gap between the strongest and fifth-strongest El Nino events recorded over the past 150 years. The scale of the anomaly has drawn comparisons to a small number of historically exceptional events and has prompted researchers to closely track how the phenomenon develops in the coming months.

El Nino events, driven by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, are known to disrupt weather patterns worldwide, including rainfall, drought and storm activity across multiple continents. With the event expected to peak late in 2026, scientists say its wide-reaching climate impacts are likely to unfold over the following months as the anomaly works its way through the global climate system.